Book People Archive

eBooks are poised to fail, just like DIVX

It's been a while since anyone mentioned this so. . . .

"Dedicated" devices, such as dedicated word processors, PDAs, calculators,
and all sorts of things like that can only have a price range that is less
than the comparable full range computer that can do the same thing. . . .
             
You will rarely see successful entries at high price points other than to
the crowd that just HAS to have the smallest and most convenient gizmos.

With laptops still getting smaller and lighter all the time, and with the
fold up keyboards, it's really not going to be all that long before the
fold up laptop, and then the competition will really get fierce as these
fold ups come down in price, and even start to enter the used market.

I see ThinkPads and other notebook computers for well under $1,000,
so the real price point of "dedicated" machines can rarely exceed a
few hundred dollars. . .and as eBooks get larger [did you see them
used on one of the TV awards show?] and laptops get smaller, there
will be little reason not to go for the full function laptops, other
than copy protection, which has always failed miserably to 15 year olds
after an investment of $100 million. . . .

Let's face it, the only people really interested in eBooks are those
whose real interest is limited distribution for a huge profit. . . .

Anyone else will end up using a laptop, which will be able to break
any possible copy protection only weeks after it has been initiated.
             
eBooks will go the way of the Wang word processors and their copies.

Unless they can come up with something that is a real hook.

I am waiting for the day when The Literary Guild offers an eBook
for $19.95. . .they same way they offered the OED microprint. . .

How THAT works will determine the future of eBooks. . . .


Thanks!

So nice to hear from you!


Michael S. Hart
<hart@[redacted]>
Project Gutenberg
"Ask Dr. Internet"
Executive Director
Internet User ~#100