Book People Archive

Reading: The Digital Future

Tom Frenkel <taf2@[redacted]> wrote:

>There is an interesting article on the future of book technology, by Jason
>Epstein, at:
>
>http://www.nybooks.com/nyrev/WWWarchdisplay.cgi?20010705046F
>
>Instead of a future where we read our books from screens (no fun for me, I
>know!) Epstein thinks it more likely that books will be created to order
>at neighborhood printing/binding stations ...


About 6 years ago a number of us looked at the technology
then being developed, and looked at what we thought would be necessary
to make electronic book readers accepted and commonplace,
and at that time we determined that the technology would be in place
to make books paperless in about ten years (i.e., about 2005),
and that traditional books would be gradually phased out
over the next ten or fifteen years (i.e., 2015 to 2020),
with the exception of course, of specialty items.

So far, I have seen nothing that would make me revise those figures
in any significant way.  E-paper is due to make its commercial debut
toward the end of this year, last I heard, and figure a few years
to develop the technology - I still think electronic book readers
will start being accepted as mainstream technology about 2005,
give or take a couple years.

Personally, I'm getting a little tired of pundits announcing
the death of the paperless age, when those of us who announced it
foresaw the transition period, were not deficient in mentioning
that there would be a transition period, and have so far been justified
in our predictions, which are still on track.  Somehow the part
where we mentioned a time by which these things would take place
is conveniently forgotten.  But, then again, I suppose the average reporter
is looking for things that will sell papers (etc.), and doesn't much care
about the truth of the matter.

Of course, neighbourhood binderies may have some usefulness in the interim,
or, again, for specialty items, but I doubt their long-term prospects.




Alan